11 Aug · 07:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IN
🇺🇦Ivan Nitchenko
ELO 1570
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Strutinskiy
OS
🇺🇦Oleksandr Strutinskiy
ELO 1574
FormLWLLW
50%
50%
🌟Nitchenko stays under total as underdog 66% (56)
Fair odds · Strutinskiy
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H16-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.