11 Aug · 07:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇺🇦Denys Pesternikov
ELO 1738
FormLLWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Pesternikov
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1652
FormLLLWL
59%
41%
🌟Pesternikov stays under total as favourite 62% (162)
Fair odds · Pesternikov
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~72 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H76-51
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (76-51)