11 Aug · 07:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Osadchyi
ELO 1588
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Osadchyi
AM
🇺🇦Andrii Martyniuk
ELO 1578
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Osadchyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 32% · 3.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H1-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.