11 Aug · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1502
FormLLLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Martyniuk
AM
🇺🇦Andrii Martyniuk
ELO 1578
FormWLWWW
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Karpenko🌟Karpenko covers set handicap as underdog 67% (83)
Fair odds · Martyniuk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~74 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+76
H2H3-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)