12 Aug · 10:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Vsevolod Kheresko
ELO 1477
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kheresko
DK
🇺🇦Denys Kozoriz
ELO 1443
FormWWWLW
54%
46%
🌟Kozoriz stays under total as underdog 70% (60)
Fair odds · Kheresko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 27% · 3.72· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.