12 Aug · 10:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SP
🇺🇦Serhii Prus
ELO 1455
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Prus
RM
🇺🇦Roman Mazur
ELO 1446
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
🌟Prus stays under total as favourite 62% (40)
Fair odds · Prus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 78% · 1.28· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H8-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.