12 Aug · 09:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RM
🇺🇦Roman Mazur
ELO 1446
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dunas
MD
🇺🇦Mykhailo Dunas
ELO 1455
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Dunas
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.