12 Aug · 06:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SP
🇺🇦Serhii Prus
ELO 1455
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Prus
DK
🇺🇦Denys Kozoriz
ELO 1443
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🌟Kozoriz stays under total as underdog 70% (60)
Fair odds · Prus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 78% · 1.28· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H21-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.