12 Aug · 08:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IF
🇺🇦Ivan Fashchevskyi
ELO 1560
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Maltsev
DM
🇺🇦Denys Maltsev
ELO 1575
FormLWWWL
48%
52%
🌟Fashchevskyi covers set handicap as underdog 66% (116)
Fair odds · Maltsev
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H19-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.