12 Aug · 07:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MH
🇺🇦Martin Holub
ELO 1446
FormLWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Holub
DS
🇺🇦David Sabuka
ELO 1367
FormWLLLL
58%
42%
🌟Sabuka stays under total as underdog 68% (31)
Fair odds · Holub
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+79
H2H6-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-2)