12 Aug · 08:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VK
🇺🇦Valentyn Kurliuk
ELO 1456
FormLLLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Sorochan
IS
🇺🇦Ihor Sorochan
ELO 1523
FormLWWWW
43%
57%
🌟Kurliuk stays under total as underdog 64% (28)
Fair odds · Sorochan
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+67
H2H8-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-0)