12 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MH
🇺🇦Martin Holub
ELO 1446
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Holub
FF
🇺🇦Filip Fryml
ELO 1437
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
🌟Fryml covers set handicap as underdog 67% (15)
Fair odds · Holub
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H9-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.