12 Aug · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇺🇦Martin Kocvara
ELO 1617
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dobias
LD
🇺🇦Ladislav Dobias
ELO 1632
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kocvara🌟Kocvara covers set handicap as underdog 72% (60)
Fair odds · Dobias
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.