12 Aug · 07:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TL
🇺🇦Tomas Liska
ELO 1513
FormWWLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Pisa
RP
🇺🇦Radovan Pisa
ELO 1572
FormWLWLL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Liska🌟Pisa rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (87)
Fair odds · Pisa
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+59
H2H47-34
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (47-34)