12 Aug · 07:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Leonenko
ELO 1434
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Leonenko
VK
🇺🇦Vasily Kondratenko
ELO 1399
FormLLLWL
54%
46%
🌟Leonenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (78)
Fair odds · Leonenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H10-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.