13 Aug · 06:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ziakun
ELO 1496
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Maliuk
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maliuk
ELO 1545
FormWLLWL
45%
55%
🌟Ziakun covers set handicap as underdog 67% (126)
Fair odds · Maliuk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H26-24
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (26-24)