13 Aug · 09:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OB
🇺🇦Oleksandr Bondarchuk
ELO 1688
FormWWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Bondarchuk
OI
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ivchuk
ELO 1643
FormLWWLW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Bondarchuk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 73% · 1.38· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H15-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-1)