13 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SB
🇺🇦Serhii Balabei
ELO 1751
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Balabei
RH
🇺🇦Roman Horokh
ELO 1739
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Balabei
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H91-155
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.