13 Aug · 11:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Leonenko
ELO 1413
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Leonenko
VK
🇺🇦Vasily Kondratenko
ELO 1387
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
🌟Leonenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 26% (80)
Fair odds · Leonenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H10-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.