13 Aug · 08:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PF
🇺🇦Pavel Fencl
ELO 1508
FormLWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Fencl
TL
🇺🇦Tomas Liska
ELO 1506
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
🌟Liska covers set handicap as underdog 65% (122)
Fair odds · Fencl
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.