13 Aug · 08:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PM
🇺🇦Pavel Moulis
ELO 1438
FormLWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Plyska
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Plyska
ELO 1484
FormWWLLW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moulis🌟Moulis covers set handicap as underdog 76% (21)
Fair odds · Plyska
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H8-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-5)