13 Aug · 07:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PM
🇺🇦Pavel Moulis
ELO 1438
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Moulis
JS
🇺🇦Jan Seeman
ELO 1427
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
🌟Seeman covers set handicap as underdog 69% (48)
Fair odds · Moulis
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.