14 Aug · 09:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇺🇦Mykolay Treschetka
ELO 1494
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Treschetka
MV
🇺🇦Mykhailo Vivatenko
ELO 1484
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Treschetka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H9-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.