14 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ziakun
ELO 1496
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ziakun
DK
🇺🇦Dmitro Kuzmenko
ELO 1486
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kuzmenko🌟Ziakun goes over total as favourite 65% (48)
Fair odds · Ziakun
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H35-46
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.