14 Aug · 12:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇺🇦Mykolay Treschetka
ELO 1494
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Treschetka
DK
🇺🇦Danylo Kasian
ELO 1475
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kasian🌟Kasian covers set handicap as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Treschetka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.