14 Aug · 11:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IH
🇺🇦Iurii Hrekh
ELO 1601
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hrekh
GK
🇺🇦Gregory Kuzmenko
ELO 1591
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
🌟Hrekh stays under total as favourite 64% (146)
Fair odds · Hrekh
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H8-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.