14 Aug · 13:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇺🇦Mykhailo Vivatenko
ELO 1484
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vivatenko
OM
🇺🇦Oleh Maksymkiv
ELO 1460
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Maksymkiv🌟Vivatenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (43)
Fair odds · Vivatenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H11-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.