14 Aug · 07:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇺🇦Miroslav Cervenka
ELO 1337
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Cervenka
AS
🇺🇦Antonin Skyba
ELO 1331
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
🌟Skyba stays under total as underdog 68% (40)
Fair odds · Cervenka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 36% · 2.81· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H6-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.