14 Aug · 11:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AO
🇺🇦Andrii Obishchenko
ELO 1578
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Troyan
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1617
FormWWWWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Troyan
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 22% · 4.52· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H0-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.