14 Aug · 09:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇺🇦Jan Rochowanski
ELO 1548
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Adam
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1586
FormWWLWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rochowanski🌟Rochowanski covers set handicap as underdog 75% (32)
Fair odds · Adam
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H6-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.