14 Aug · 07:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IE
🇺🇦Ihor Emets
ELO 1512
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Emets
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1507
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
🌟Karpenko covers set handicap as underdog 67% (86)
Fair odds · Emets
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H8-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.