15 Aug · 12:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RH
🇺🇦Ruslan Haiseniuk
ELO 1500
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kovalchuk
NK
🇺🇦Nazar Kovalchuk
ELO 1535
FormWWLLL
46%
54%
🌟Kovalchuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (128)
Fair odds · Kovalchuk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H12-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.