15 Aug · 16:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VS
🇺🇦Vasiliy Smyk
ELO 1475
FormLWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Tymofeev
OT
🇺🇦Oleksandr Tymofeev
ELO 1557
FormWLLWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Tymofeev
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+82
H2H21-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-13)