15 Aug · 08:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JJ
🇺🇦Jan Simecek Jnr
ELO 1519
FormLWWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Merkl
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1597
FormWWWWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Merkl
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+78
H2H22-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-19)