15 Aug · 07:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RL
🇺🇦Ruslan Lazebnyi
ELO 1531
FormWWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lazebnyi
ON
🇺🇦Oleh Napirko
ELO 1477
FormLWLWL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Napirko
Fair odds · Lazebnyi
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+54)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)