16 Aug · 07:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LH
🇺🇦Lukas Heinzl
ELO 1629
FormWLWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Heinzl
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1547
FormWWWLW
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rulc🌟Rulc covers set handicap as underdog 65% (86)
Fair odds · Heinzl
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+82
H2H21-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-14)