16 Aug · 09:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇺🇦Michal Stibor
ELO 1581
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Heinzl
LH
🇺🇦Lukas Heinzl
ELO 1629
FormWLWLL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stibor
Fair odds · Heinzl
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H13-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-11)