16 Aug · 08:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VM
🇺🇦Volodymyr Melnykov
ELO 1491
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kurtenko
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kurtenko
ELO 1525
FormLWLLW
46%
54%
🌟Melnykov stays under total as underdog 66% (96)
Fair odds · Kurtenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H14-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.