16 Aug · 08:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Michal Stibor
ELO 1581
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stibor
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1547
FormWWWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rulc🌟Stibor rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (51)
Fair odds · Stibor
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H21-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.