16 Aug · 07:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Zhyrnov
ELO 1525
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kovshun
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1546
FormWWLWW
48%
52%
🌟Zhyrnov covers set handicap as underdog 62% (79)
Fair odds · Kovshun
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 25% · 4.00· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H0-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.