16 Aug · 07:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
EP
🇺🇦Eduard Populovskyi
ELO 1491
FormWLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Populovskyi
AK
🇺🇦Anatolii Kovalenko
ELO 1488
FormWLWWL
50%
50%
🌟Kovalenko stays under total as underdog 63% (43)
Fair odds · Populovskyi
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H16-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.