16 Aug · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LH
🇺🇦Lukas Heinzl
ELO 1629
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chalupa
JC
🇺🇦Josef Chalupa
ELO 1650
FormWWWLW
48%
52%
🌟Heinzl covers set handicap as underdog 65% (49)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H16-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.