17 Aug · 11:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FS
🇺🇦Frantisek Schmidtmayer
ELO 1494
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Schmidtmayer
JH
🇺🇦Josef Hanacek
ELO 1489
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hanacek🌟Hanacek covers set handicap as underdog 66% (80)
Fair odds · Schmidtmayer
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.