17 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VB
🇺🇦Volodymyr Bilobrov
ELO 1493
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Karpenko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1500
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
🌟Bilobrov stays under total as underdog 66% (32)
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.