17 Aug · 07:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PF
🇺🇦Pavel Fencl
ELO 1494
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Liska
TL
🇺🇦Tomas Liska
ELO 1503
FormWLLLW
49%
51%
🌟Liska rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (71)
Fair odds · Liska
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.