17 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DK
🇺🇦Dmitro Kuzmenko
ELO 1507
FormLWLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kuzmenko
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ziakun
ELO 1504
FormWWLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ziakun🌟Ziakun covers set handicap as underdog 68% (131)
Fair odds · Kuzmenko
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H47-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.