17 Aug · 08:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OM
🇺🇦Oleh Maksymkiv
ELO 1467
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Salivonchyk
VS
🇺🇦Vasil Salivonchyk
ELO 1508
FormLLWLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Maksymkiv🌟Salivonchyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (70)
Fair odds · Salivonchyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H17-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.