18 Aug · 07:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VS
🇺🇦Vadim Smetenko
ELO 1486
FormLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Karpenko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1526
FormLLWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.