18 Aug · 07:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VS
🇺🇦Vladyslav Stukalov
ELO 1422
FormLLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Semenets
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Semenets
ELO 1422
FormWWLWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Semenets
Fair odds · Semenets
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+0
H2H28-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.