19 Aug · 09:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VK
🇺🇦Vladyslav Kovalchuk
ELO 1556
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tebenko
YT
🇺🇦Yaroslav Tebenko
ELO 1563
FormWLWWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kovalchuk🌟Tebenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (70)
Fair odds · Tebenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H32-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.